Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (May 14) | Bearish Closing Marubozu -618 Yen, New ATH 63,799 Rejected

The following technical analysis is based on data as of May 14, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 62,654.05 yen on May 14, falling 618.06 yen (-0.98%). Open 63,263.46, high 63,799.32 (new ATH), low 62,654.05, close 62,654.05. Intraday broke 5/11 high 63,385 to print new ATH 63,799, but close = day's low — a bearish closing marubozu (no lower shadow). A 609-yen midsize bearish body with 536-yen upper shadow and 0-yen lower shadow. (Note: Today's volume was not yet finalized at writing time.)

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 62,760.05, SMA25 59,159.32, SMA75 56,197.52, SMA200 50,608.21. Close 62,654.05 slipped just below SMA5 62,760, but SMA25 / SMA75 / SMA200 perfect order intact. SMA25 deviation +5.91%, SMA75 deviation +11.49% — still above caution but down sharply from yesterday's +7.65%; overheating resolving.

RSI 66.51, down 4 points from 70.59, exiting the 70 overbought zone. MACD 1,895.82 / signal 1,695.89 / histogram +199.93 — MACD slightly down from 1,917.30, histogram contracts from 271.39 to 199.93 — momentum slowdown pronounced. Stochastic %K 77.88 / %D 87.47 — %K crosses well below %D in dead cross, overheating-relief phase in full swing. Ichimoku: thick bullish cloud, price above, three-fold bullish intact.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 63,962.98, middle 60,150.60, lower 56,338.22, bandwidth 12.68%. Today's high 63,799 approached but didn't break upper band — capped under +2 sigma a second time. Bandwidth narrows from 12.95% to 12.68%.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Bearish Closing Marubozu (No Lower Shadow)

Today's candle is a bearish closing marubozu. Conditions: (1) topping-region appearance, (2) close = low (no lower shadow), (3) medium-to-large bearish body, (4) upper shadow can be present. Here: (1) new-high zone after 5/13 three inside up completion (✓); (2) close 62,654 = low 62,654, lower shadow 0 (✓); (3) midsize bearish body 609 (✓); (4) upper shadow 536 (new ATH rejection width) (✓). Body/range 53% — not pure marubozu, but close=low is a symbol of strong downside pressure. As the contradicting day to 5/13's three inside up bullish signal, today is critical. Bulkowski's close=low bearish at top tends to have high reversal-continuation rate; tomorrow's confirmation bearish candle decides top formation.

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 50,558.91 to 63,799.32 (today's new ATH). Today's close at 91.35%. Resistance: 63,799 (today's high / new ATH), Bollinger upper 63,962, 5/13 high 63,347, psychological 64,000. Support: 62,654 (today's low / close), pivot 62,272, SMA5 62,760 nearby, psychological 62,000, 5/11 low 62,380, 5/12 low 62,158.

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume not finalized at writing time. Over the past 4 sessions (5/11-5/14), 2 new ATH updates occurred but both closed lower — testifying to strong selling pressure in new-high territory. Multi-timeframe stays all strong uptrend with full alignment.

■ Market Environment

Two consecutive new-ATH-then-close-lower events (5/11 and 5/14) suggest profit-taking strength in blue-sky territory. Overseas markets, FX, US VIX, plus Japanese GDP preliminary and late-earnings tech responses dictate near-term moves.

■ Outlook and Scenarios

Bullish: Volume-backed clear break above 5/14 high 63,799 / Bollinger upper 63,962 invalidates closing marubozu; psychological 64,000 → 65,000 next targets. Bearish: Break below today's low/close 62,654 / SMA5 62,760 brings full corrective phase, with 5/12 low 62,158 / psychological 62,000 / 5/7 open 60,241 pressure. Weekly double-top signs possible. Neutral: 62,000-63,799 range awaiting overheating relief.

■ Summary

May 14 bearish closing marubozu contradicts 5/13's three inside up, marking 2nd new-ATH rejection since 5/11. Key levels: upside 63,799 / 64,000, downside 62,654 / 62,000. This week's price action is a swing-of-pendulum with 2 new ATH updates and 2 rejections; overseas market action over the weekend will set next week's direction. Weekly double-top formation watch is also key.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.