Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 25) | Bullish Belt Hold +1,497 Yen, Hammer Confirmation Reversal
The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 25, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 53,749.62 yen on March 25, jumping 1,497.34 yen (+2.87%) as the confirmation signal following yesterday's hammer. Open 53,015.80, high 54,022.88, low 53,015.80 (open=low), close 53,749.62. A 734-yen large bullish body with 273-yen upper shadow and 0-yen lower shadow—a textbook bullish belt hold (open=low type).
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 53,225.86, SMA25 55,393.93, SMA75 53,369.73. Close 53,749.62 reclaims above SMA5 and SMA75, below SMA25. SMA25 deviation -2.97%, SMA75 deviation +0.71% (positive flip).
RSI 47.16, up sharply from 40.78. MACD -656.62 / signal -357.68 / histogram -298.94—histogram negative-contraction continues. Stochastic %K 51.61 / %D 29.82 with %K surging above %D in golden cross. Ichimoku cloud bearish, price below.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 59,180.48, middle 54,976.17, lower 50,771.86, bandwidth 15.30%. Close 53,749 sits 2,977 yen above the lower band, 1,227 yen below middle. Bandwidth narrowed slightly from 15.53% to 15.30%—volatility settling early.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Bullish Belt Hold
Today's candle is a textbook bullish belt hold (open=low type). Conditions: (1) appearance at bottom region after a downtrend, (2) open=low (no lower shadow), (3) large bullish body, (4) negligible upper shadow. Here: (1) bottom region after 3/19-3/23 declines and 3/24 hammer (✓), (2) open 53,015.80 = low 53,015.80 with 0 lower shadow (✓), (3) large bullish body 734 (✓), (4) upper shadow 273 = 37% of body—longer but acceptable. Bulkowski's reliability around 60% in bottom region, with elevated confidence following hammer-type reversal candidates.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 50,198.97 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 38.88%. Resistance: 54,022 (today's high), SMA5 53,225 reclaimed, SMA75 53,369 reclaimed, psychological 54,000 / 55,000. Support: 53,015 (today's open=low), SMA75 53,369 (former resistance, now expected support), 3/24 low 51,645.
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume of 133.7 million versus 20-day average yields 0.82x—light (normal). Volume expansion preferred for bullish belt hold; modest here. Multi-timeframe: daily / weekly uptrend, monthly strong uptrend (upgraded).
■ Market Environment
The hammer + bullish belt hold sequential reversal hint strengthens bottom-formation suggestion. Overseas risk-on, FX stabilization support the domestic market. SMA75 reclaim is the first step in intermediate trend recovery.
■ Outlook
Bullish: Reclaim of 54,022 (today's high) brings full rebound, with SMA25 55,393 → psychological 55,000 / 56,000 in scope. Cloud reclaim brings strong-bull resumption. Bearish: Break below 53,015 (today's open=low) invalidates the belt hold; SMA75 break would bring 51,645 (3/24 low) retest. Neutral: 53,000-54,500 range for base confirmation.
■ Summary
March 25 bullish belt hold confirms yesterday's hammer, strengthening bottom-formation hint. Key levels: upside 54,022 / SMA25 55,393, downside 53,015 / SMA75 53,369. Volume-backed follow-through is the biggest reliability checkpoint.
The sequential reversal signal of hammer (3/24) + bullish belt hold (3/25) is a high-reliability bottom-region pattern combination per Steve Nison's framework. Bulkowski reports that consecutive reversal candles raise reversal-continuation rate by 10-15% versus standalone. Continued rises this week to test SMA25 55,393 would substantiate full rebound, but lacking volume backs sell pressure near tops. SMA75 53,369 hold remains the key support condition.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.