Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (May 21) | Bullish Belt Hold +1,879 Yen Rebound, Reversal from 5-Day Decline

The following technical analysis is based on data as of May 21, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 61,684.14 yen on May 21, soaring 1,879.73 yen (+3.14%) for a sharp reversal from 5/14's closing marubozu and the subsequent 5-day decline of -3,030 yen (-4.82%). Open 60,374.84, high 62,043.53, low 60,282.35, close 61,684.14. A 1,309-yen large bullish body with 359-yen upper shadow and just 92-yen lower shadow (only 7% of body). The open 60,374 is just 92 yen above the day's low 60,282, forming a bullish belt hold-like pattern (open ≈ low type).

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 60,852.88, SMA25 60,291.05, SMA75 56,700.66, SMA200 51,091.55. Close 61,684 broke 831 yen above SMA5 and 1,393 yen above SMA25. SMA25 deviation flipped positive to +2.31% (from -0.49%), SMA75 deviation +8.79% — yesterday's SMA25 break resolved in just one session.

RSI 58.61, up sharply from 50.59. MACD 1,161.25 / signal 1,464.86 / histogram -303.61 — histogram improving from -348.32, early signs of MACD dead cross resolution. Stochastic %K 56.58 / %D 35.96 — %K crosses %D in golden cross. Ichimoku: thick bullish cloud, price reclaimed above cloud, kijun 60,016 also reclaimed — three-fold bullish re-established.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 63,740.96, middle 60,838.38, lower 57,935.81, bandwidth 9.54%. Today's close 61,684 broke 846 yen above middle — pullback toward +1 sigma. Bandwidth narrowed from 10.05% to 9.54%, volatility settling continues.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Bullish Belt Hold (Loose)

Today's candle forms a bullish belt hold-like pattern. Conditions: (1) appears at bottom region after a downtrend, (2) open ≈ low (negligible lower shadow), (3) large bullish body, (4) negligible upper shadow. Here: (1) bottom region after 5-day decline of -3,030 yen (✓); (2) open 60,374 vs low 60,282 with lower shadow 92 = 7% of body (✓); (3) large bullish body 1,309 (✓); (4) upper shadow 359 = 27% of body — longer than textbook (partial violation). The tiny lower shadow and near-straight rally from open symbolizes strong buying pressure. As a direct rebuttal to 5/20's bearish belt hold, reliability rises.

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 50,558.91 to 63,799.32. Today's close at 84.02%. Resistance: 62,043 (today's high), pivot 62,391, psychological 62,000, Bollinger upper 63,740. Support: 60,282 (today's low), pivot 60,629, psychological 60,000 (former resistance, now support), SMA25 60,291, kijun 60,016.

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume 166.6 million versus 20-day average 176.65 million yields 0.94x — near average (normal). Lack of volume expansion in the rebound slightly lowers reliability, but as autonomous rebound after 5-day decline it carries weight. Multi-timeframe: daily strong_uptrend re-established (from uptrend) / weekly / monthly all strong uptrend — alignment recovered.

■ Market Environment

From 5/20's psychological 60,000 break and SMA25 deviation negative turn, today's recovery fully reverses in one session. Likely overseas risk-on, FX stability, and semiconductor/tech rebound in background. Possibility that 5/19-5/20 descending triangle downside break was a fakeout is rising; tomorrow's follow-through will confirm.

■ Outlook and Scenarios

Bullish: Hold of SMA5 60,852 and break above 62,043 brings full rebound, with psychological 62,000 → Bollinger upper 63,740 → 5/14 high 63,799 in scope. Fakeout confirmation of descending triangle downside break restores sharp rebound trend. Bearish: Break below today's low 60,282 / psychological 60,000 invalidates rebound; 5/20 low 59,292 retest pressure. Neutral: 60,000-62,000 range while volume cools.

■ Summary

May 21 bullish belt hold-like pattern reverses 5-day decline, reclaiming psychological 60,000 and SMA25 — one of the 4-fold bearish signals (5/20) collapsed. Key levels: upside 62,043 / 62,000 / 63,740, downside 60,282 / 60,000. Follow-through and volume expansion are the biggest factors for full-rebound confirmation.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.