Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 10) | Bullish Harami +1,519 Yen, Bottom Reversal Hint
The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 10, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 54,248.39 yen on March 10, jumping 1,519.67 yen (+2.88%) from yesterday's plunge. Open 53,524.09, high 54,694.89, low 53,487.19, close 54,248.39—a midsize bullish body of 724 yen with 447-yen upper shadow and 37-yen lower shadow. Today's body sits roughly inside yesterday's massive bearish body (52,728-54,608), forming a bullish harami pattern.
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 54,424.31, SMA25 56,124.53, SMA75 52,797.45. Close 54,248.39 is approaching SMA5, well below SMA25, above SMA75. SMA25 deviation -3.34%, SMA75 deviation +2.75%.
RSI 44.89, up sharply from 37.73. MACD 70.04 / signal 683.32 / histogram -613.28—histogram still deeply negative. Stochastic %K 35.85 / %D 29.19 with stochastic exiting oversold. Ichimoku price below cloud, bearish structure intact.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 59,784.82, middle 56,668.61, lower 53,552.41, bandwidth 11.00%. Close 54,248 holds just above the lower band 53,552—a critical reflex avoiding the band-walk.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Bullish Harami
Today's candle forms a bullish harami where the bullish body sits roughly inside yesterday's bearish body. Conditions: (1) appears after a downtrend, (2) prior large bearish candle, (3) today's bullish body within prior body. Here: (1) bottom region after the 3/9 plunge (✓), (2) 3/9 bearish body 1,879 (✓), (3) today's body (53,524-54,248) sits in the upper half of yesterday's body (52,728-54,608) (✓). Today's open 53,524 is above yesterday's close 52,728 (gap up open), so strict harami "contained inside prior body" is not fully met, but today's close 54,248 is just below yesterday's open 54,608, and the structure is functionally equivalent as a reversal hint. Bulkowski's bottom-reversal continuation rate around 53%; confirmation candle critical.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 48,643.78 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 52.44%. Resistance: 54,694 (today's high), SMA5 54,424, 3/6 close 55,620, SMA25 56,124. Support: 53,487 (today's low), Bollinger lower 53,552, psychological 53,000, 3/9 low 51,407.
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume of 162.5 million versus 20-day average yields 0.95x—near average (normal). Volume expansion is preferred for bottom rebound; current modest. Multi-timeframe: daily uptrend / weekly strong uptrend / monthly strong uptrend—improving alignment hint.
■ Market Environment
Following yesterday's plunge, overseas autonomous rebound and FX stability supported the domestic market. Technical-driven rebound dominates, awaiting confirmation signal.
■ Outlook
Bullish: Break above 54,694 (today's high) confirms the harami; SMA5 54,424 → SMA25 56,124 retest in scope. Three-inside-up evolution likely. Bearish: Break below 53,487 (today's low) invalidates the harami; pressure to retest 3/9 low 51,407. Neutral: 53,500-54,700 range while a base confirms.
■ Summary
March 10 bullish harami signals bottom reversal. Key levels: upside 54,694 / SMA5 54,424, downside 53,487 / 53,000. Tomorrow's confirmation candle determines three-inside-up potential.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.