Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (May 1) | Bullish Harami +228 Yen, First Rebound in 3 Sessions Capped by Upper Shadow
The following technical analysis is based on data as of May 1, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 59,513.12 yen on May 1, adding 228.20 yen (+0.38%) for the first rebound in three sessions after the 4/28 and 4/30 sequential declines. Open 59,379.12, high 59,706.70, low 59,263.50, close 59,513.12. A 134-yen small bullish body with 194-yen upper shadow and 116-yen lower shadow. Today's small bullish body (O 59,379.12, C 59,513.12) sits roughly inside yesterday's small bearish body (O 59,484.71, C 59,284.92), forming a bullish harami-like pattern.
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 59,793.81, SMA25 56,719.92, SMA75 55,475.89, SMA200 49,725.55. Close 59,513.12 sits about 280 yen below SMA5 but is approaching it from yesterday — short-term support reclaim attempt underway. SMA25 deviation +4.92%, SMA75 deviation +7.28% — bullish over-extension intact. SMA25 / SMA75 / SMA200 perfect order continues.
RSI 60.55, marginally up from 59.67. Plenty of room above neutral 50. MACD 1,396.03 / signal 1,300.47 / histogram +95.56. MACD eased from 1,449.24, histogram contracted further from +172.66 to +95.56 — momentum slowdown continues but still positive. Stochastic %K 70.23 / %D 72.13 — %K crossed below %D in dead cross, but both remain in upper region. Ichimoku: tenkan 59,762.71, kijun 55,731.43 — thick bullish cloud, price above, three-fold bullish setup intact.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 62,273.63, middle 57,773.62, lower 53,273.61, bandwidth 15.58%. Bandwidth contracted further from 17.34% to 15.58% — volatility settling continues. Today's close 59,513 sits 1,740 yen above middle, 2,761 yen below upper. Band-walk state has resolved; consistent with pullback from +2 sigma toward middle.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Bullish Harami-Like
Today's candle forms a bullish harami-like pattern. Standard conditions: (1) appears after a downtrend, (2) prior bearish, (3) today's bullish body roughly contained inside prior body. Here: (1) after 4/28 + 4/30 sequential declines (total -1,252 yen) (✓); (2) 4/30 small bearish body 200 (O 59,484.71, C 59,284.92) (✓); (3) today's 5/1 small bullish body 134 (O 59,379.12, C 59,513.12) sits roughly inside prior body (59,284.92-59,484.71) (✓). Strictly, today's close 59,513 exceeds prior open 59,484 by 29 yen (0.06%) — a loose form, but functionally serves as a reversal hint. Bulkowski's bullish harami bottom-reversal-continuation rate is around 53%; confirmation candle is critical for reliability.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 50,558.91 to 60,903.95. Today's close at 86.56% — upper portion. Resistance: 59,706 (today's high), SMA5 59,793, pivot resistance 59,725, psychological 60,000, 4/27 high 60,903. Support: 59,263 (today's low), pivot support 59,282 nearby, psychological 59,000, 4/30 low 58,928, Fibonacci 78.6% at 58,690, 4/17 low 58,475. Today's range of 444 contracted significantly from 4/30 (632) and 4/28 (933) — suggesting early-stage consolidation with volatility settling.
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume of 150.7 million versus 20-day average 147.06 million yields 1.02x — near average (normal). Volume expansion preferred at rebound start; current pace modest, slightly lowering bullish-harami-like reliability. Yesterday 4/30 volume was 201.6 million (1.37x average), so today's settling indicates the trading-energy pause. Multi-timeframe stays daily / weekly / monthly all strong uptrend with full alignment.
■ Market Catalysts
Mid-Golden Week, the final trading session before 5/3-5/5 three-day holiday. Overseas markets and FX direction will dictate the May 7 reopen gap. Major US economic data and late-earnings tech-sector responses are key risk factors during the holiday window. Whether energy for psychological 60,000 break recovers will set early-May direction.
■ Outlook and Scenarios
Bullish: Reclaim of today's high 59,706 and SMA5 59,793 brings full rebound, with psychological 60,000 → 4/27 high 60,903 in scope. Three-inside-up evolution would strengthen the reversal continuation signal. Bearish: Break below today's low 59,263 invalidates the bullish harami; pressure to 4/30 low 58,928 → Fibonacci 78.6% (58,690) → 4/17 low 58,475. Neutral: 59,263-59,793 range until reopen, consolidation with volatility settling continues.
■ Summary
May 1 bullish harami-like pattern offers early bottom-region hint after the 4/27 record-high correction. Key levels: upside SMA5 59,793 / 60,000, downside 59,263 / SMA25 56,719. The May 7 reopen gap direction, SMA5 reclaim status, and volume-backed follow-through will set the short-term trend.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.