Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 18) | Bullish Marubozu +1,539 Yen, Rectangle Upside Break

The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 18, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 55,239.40 yen on March 18, surging 1,539.01 yen (+2.87%) and breaking out of the rectangle to the upside. Open 54,148.84, high 55,239.40, low 54,148.84, close 55,239.40. With open=low, close=high, no upper or lower shadows, this is a perfect bullish marubozu—the strongest bullish signal among single candles.

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 54,192.70, SMA25 56,119.89, SMA75 53,214.98. Close 55,239.40 reclaims well above SMA5, approaches SMA25. SMA25 deviation contracted from prior -4.39% to -1.57%, SMA75 deviation +3.80%.

RSI 50.73, up sharply from 43.19, reclaiming neutral 50. MACD -289.63 / signal 4.51 / histogram -294.15—histogram negative contraction continues. Stochastic %K 50.98 / %D 36.49 with %K surging above %D in golden cross. Ichimoku cloud bearish but price reclaims above (above) cloud.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 59,578.28, middle 55,869.60, lower 52,160.92, bandwidth 13.28%. Close 55,239 below middle but approaching. Bandwidth flat at 13.26% to 13.28%.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Bullish Marubozu

Today's candle is a perfect bullish marubozu. Conditions: (1) no upper shadow (close=high), (2) large bullish body, (3) no lower shadow (open=low). Here: (1) upper shadow 0 (close=high) (✓), (2) body 1,090.56 (✓), (3) lower shadow 0 (open=low) (✓). Body is 100% of range—a perfect bullish marubozu. Bulkowski's continuation rate around 65-70%, especially powerful in range breakouts and reversal phases. Today simultaneously broke rectangle upper 54,733—a compound signal.

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 48,643.78 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 61.71%. Resistance: SMA25 56,119, psychological 56,000, Bollinger middle 55,869. Support: 54,148 (today's open=low), SMA5 54,192, rectangle upper 54,733 (former resistance, now support).

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume of 136.7 million versus 20-day average yields 0.85x—light (normal). Bullish marubozu + rectangle break warrants volume expansion; modest level here slightly lowers reliability. Multi-timeframe: daily uptrend / weekly strong uptrend / monthly strong uptrend—improving alignment.

■ Market Environment

The combination of rectangle upside break and bullish marubozu suggests overseas risk-on or yen weakening. Limited individual catalysts post-earnings; technical-driven sharp rebound dominates.

■ Outlook

Bullish: Reclaim of SMA25 56,119 brings full rebound, with psychological 56,000 / 57,000 in scope. Cloud reclaim and three-fold bullish recovery brings strong-bull resumption. Bearish: Break below 54,148 (today's open=low) invalidates marubozu / rectangle break; pressure to fall back into rectangle. Neutral: 54,148-56,119 range testing SMA25.

■ Summary

March 18 bullish marubozu and rectangle upside break combine for a strong-bull compound signal. Key levels: upside SMA25 56,119 / 56,000, downside 54,148 / 54,733. Volume-backed follow-through is the biggest reliability checkpoint.

Bullish marubozu reliability per Bulkowski is about 65-70%, with strong signals especially in range breakouts and reversal contexts. Today simultaneously breaks rectangle upper 54,733, compounding signals. However, lacking volume hints at fakeout risk; care is needed until confirming bullish candles or volume expansion appear. SMA25 56,119 retest is the first gate to determining trend-reversal substantiation.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.