Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Apr 5) | Descending Triangle Forming, 53,000 Yen Support in Focus
On April 4, 2026, the Nikkei 225 closed at 53,123 yen, pulling back after the previous day's 660-yen rally driven by strength in U.S. tech stocks. Rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. This article analyzes the current market environment through technical indicators and chart patterns. Note: Technical indicators below are based on March 19 analysis script data. The April 4 closing price is sourced from Nikkei Shimbun.
■ What Technical Indicators Show
Moving averages as of March 19: the 5-day SMA stands at 53,976.62 yen, 25-day SMA at 55,948.77 yen, 75-day SMA at 53,265.83 yen, and 200-day SMA at 47,188.11 yen. Short-term SMA5 is below SMA25, indicating selling pressure. However, prices remain well above SMA200, preserving the long-term uptrend. Deviation from SMA25 is -4.60%, near the -5% oversold threshold.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) was 43.23 as of March 19 — mildly bearish. Recent data from Investing.com shows RSI recovering to 54.33. Reports suggest RSI briefly dipped below 30 on April 4.
MACD was -382.31, signal line -72.85, histogram -309.46 — all confirming downward momentum.
■ Bollinger Bands and Volatility
Upper band at 59,493.44, middle at 55,681.03, lower at 51,868.63 yen. Bandwidth at 13.69% indicates high volatility from the late-February selloff. Price sits below the middle line, trending toward the lower band.
■ Descending Triangle Formation
A descending triangle appears to be forming over the past 60 days. Highs have declined: 59,332.43 to 55,239.40 (Mar 18) to 54,333.02 (Mar 19). Lows remain near horizontal support: 53,286.69 (Mar 13), 53,113.95 (Mar 16), 53,190.18 (Mar 19). Per Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns: 72% target hit rate, 19% average decline, 10% failure rate. Pattern estimated 60-70% complete.
■ Support and Resistance
R1: 54,073.64, R2: 54,774.75, S1: 52,930.80, S2: 52,489.07 yen. Fibonacci levels: 38.2% at 52,726.84, 50% at 53,988.10, 61.8% at 55,249.37. Ichimoku cloud (54,473-54,766) acts as overhead resistance.
■ Volume and Sentiment
20-day average volume ~1.62B shares, declining trend. VIX at 23.87, USD/JPY near 160. Stochastics: %K 28.24, %D 36.05.
■ Market Environment
Middle East tensions dominate. WTI crude above $110. Key event: U.S. March CPI on April 10. Japanese earnings season begins mid-April.
■ Outlook
Bullish: Break above R1 (54,073.64) and cloud top (54,765.70) targets Fibonacci 61.8% (55,249.37). Bearish: Break below 53,000 targets S1 (52,930.80), Fibonacci 38.2% (52,726.84), then 51,166.30. Neutral: Range-bound 53,000-55,000 until breakout.
■ Summary
Short-term bearish signals dominate, but the long-term uptrend (SMA200 at 47,188) remains intact. Watch 53,000 support and 54,073 resistance. The descending triangle resolution and April 10 CPI will determine direction.
※ For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Technical data as of March 19, 2026.