Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (May 19) | Descending Triangle Forming -265 Yen, Psychological 60,000 Battle

The following technical analysis is based on data as of May 19, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 60,550.59 yen on May 19, falling 265.36 yen (-0.44%) for a 4th consecutive decline since 5/14's closing marubozu. Open 61,202.84, high 61,456.31, low 60,256.33, close 60,550.59. A 652-yen midsize bearish body with 254-yen upper shadow and 294-yen lower shadow. Over the 5/15-5/19 period, highs progressively contract 63,235→61,478→61,456 while lows gently decline 60,937→60,376→60,256 with support holding around 60,200-60,400 — forming a descending triangle in progress. (Note: Today's volume was not yet finalized at writing time.)

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 61,740.40, SMA25 59,944.29, SMA75 56,497.06, SMA200 50,907.30. Close 60,550 broke about 1,190 yen below SMA5 — short-term support broken continues. SMA25 deviation +1.01% (vs prior +1.74%) — further contraction; SMA75 deviation +7.17%. SMA25 proximity puts SMA25 touch/break in scope.

RSI 54.48, marginally down from 55.90, 4.5 points above neutral 50. MACD 1,406.30 / signal 1,627.85 / histogram -221.55. MACD dead cross progressing, histogram negativity expanding from -100.41 to -221.55 — trend reversal definitive. Stochastic %K 33.31 / %D 43.18 — both well below 50, full overheating relief phase continues. Ichimoku: thick bullish cloud, three-fold bullish maintained but kijun 59,089 becomes the deeper support.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 63,731.36, middle 60,663.67, lower 57,595.98, bandwidth 10.11%. Today's close 60,550 just below Bollinger middle 60,663 — middle support broken. Bandwidth narrowed from 10.77% to 10.11% — volatility settling.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Descending Triangle (Forming)

Today's price action fits the formation stage of a descending triangle. Conditions: (1) clear horizontal / mildly declining support line, (2) progressively declining resistance line, (3) volume decreasing during formation. Here: (1) support zone 60,256-60,937 (5/15 low 60,937 → 5/18 low 60,376 → 5/19 low 60,256 gradually declining, approximate 60,000-60,400 support band) (✓), (2) declining highs (5/15 high 63,235 → 5/18 high 61,478 → 5/19 high 61,456 progressive contraction) (✓), (3) volume from 5/15 214M → 5/18 168M declining (✓). Bulkowski's descending triangle downside breakout rate around 64%; appearance during uptrend = bearish continuation pattern. Formation about 60% progress (4-5 days elapsed, 2-3 more days of consolidation expected before completion).

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 50,558.91 to 63,799.32. Today's close at 75.46%. Resistance: 61,456 (today's high), 5/18 high 61,478, SMA5 61,740, Bollinger middle 60,663. Support: 60,256 (today's low), psychological 60,000, SMA25 59,944, kijun 59,089, Fibonacci 61.8% (around 56,952). Descending triangle support band 60,000-60,300 hold is the most critical near-term factor.

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume not finalized at writing time. 5/18 volume 168.1 million was around average; the progression from 3-day to 4-day decline suggests institutional position adjustment ongoing. Multi-timeframe stays all strong uptrend with full alignment.

■ Market Environment

From 5/7's historic surge (+3,320 yen), 4-day decline of -2,283 yen represents a meaningful corrective phase. Descending triangle formation suggests the standoff between buyer defense of psychological levels and seller pressure from selling rebounds. Overseas markets, FX, US VIX, and post-earnings momentum determine the breakout direction.

■ Outlook and Scenarios

Bullish: Volume-backed break above 5/18 high 61,478 / SMA5 61,740 confirms descending triangle upside break, with Bollinger middle 60,663 reclaim continuing the rebound. Psychological 62,000 → 63,000 next targets. Bearish: Break below psychological 60,000 / SMA25 59,944 / kijun 59,089 confirms descending triangle downside break, with Fibonacci 61.8% (around 56,952) pressure. Bulkowski's post-breakout expected move equals triangle height (~3,000 yen), implying 60,000 to 57,000 downside scenario. Neutral: 60,000-61,500 range continuing consolidation while volume cools.

■ Summary

May 19 descending triangle formation in progress with psychological 60,000 battle. Key levels: upside SMA5 61,740 / middle 60,663, downside 60,256 / 60,000 / SMA25 59,944. Whether 60,000 holds and upside resistance test results will determine the breakout direction.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.