Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 26) | Doji at Rebound Highs -145 Yen, Stall Warning

The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 26, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 53,603.65 yen on March 26, a 145-yen decline (-0.27%) as the 3/24-3/25 sharp rebound pauses. Open 53,855.13, high 54,175.80, low 53,176.77, close 53,603.65. A 251-yen small bearish body, 320-yen upper shadow, 427-yen lower shadow. Body-to-range ratio with both shadows long—a doji-like pattern at the rebound highs.

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 52,898.71, SMA25 55,275.42, SMA75 53,427.07. Close 53,603.65 well above SMA5, retains above SMA75, below SMA25. SMA25 deviation -3.02%, SMA75 deviation +0.33%.

RSI 46.64, marginally lower from 47.16, stagnant below neutral 50. MACD -624.72 / signal -411.09 / histogram -213.64—histogram negativity narrowed further from prior, improvement continues. Stochastic %K 57.65 / %D 45.20 with %K rising. Ichimoku cloud bearish.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 58,626.30, middle 54,727.20, lower 50,828.09, bandwidth 14.25%. Close 53,603 below middle but well above lower band. Bandwidth narrowed from 15.30% to 14.25%—volatility settling continues.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Doji-like

Today's candle forms a doji-like pattern. Conditions: (1) small body (body/range ≤10% standard), (2) shadows present, (3) symbol of direction loss. Here: (1) body 251/range 999 = 25%, not strict 10% but small-ish (✓ loose form), (2) upper 320 / lower 427 exceed body (✓), (3) shadow balance shows direction loss (✓). At rebound highs, this signals upside stall. Bulkowski's standalone reliability around 50%; confirmation signal awaited.

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 50,198.97 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 37.28%. Resistance: 54,175 (today's high), SMA75 53,427 break warrants caution, SMA25 55,275. Support: 53,176 (today's low), SMA5 52,898, psychological 53,000. Pivot support 53,128 nearby.

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume of 124.5 million versus 20-day average yields 0.77x—light (decreasing). Doji at rebound highs + volume contraction suggests buyer-energy depletion. Multi-timeframe: daily / weekly uptrend, monthly strong uptrend.

■ Market Environment

Day 3 of the rebound after 3/24 hammer and 3/25 belt hold pauses. Overseas markets, FX, semiconductor sector decisive. Month-end / month-start institutional rebalancing warrants caution.

■ Outlook

Bullish: Reclaim of 54,175 (today's high) brings rebound restart, with SMA25 55,275 → psychological 55,000 / 56,000 in scope. Bearish: Break below 53,176 (today's low) + SMA75 53,427 confirms doji reversal, with 3/24 low 51,645 → psychological 50,000 retest. Neutral: 53,000-54,200 range awaiting direction.

■ Summary

March 26 doji at rebound highs lights the stall warning. Key levels: upside 54,175 / SMA25 55,275, downside 53,176 / SMA75 53,427. Whether tomorrow's candle continues rebound or signals reversal is the inflection.

The doji-like pattern is known as the "symbol of direction loss," but its meaning depends greatly on surrounding price action. When appearing at rebound highs as today, it often functions as a warning of upside-energy depletion, with subsequent bearish failure to break above doji highs hinting at double-top development. Conversely, breaking above today's high 54,175 with the next bullish candle keeps the doji as a "pause sign" maintaining the rebound-continuation scenario. Tomorrow's candle is the decisive judgment material.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.