Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 6) | Morning Star Complete +342 Yen, 3-Candle Reversal Signal
The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 6, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 55,620.84 yen on March 6, rising 342.78 yen (+0.62%) for a second consecutive rebound day. Open 54,674.60, high 55,686.56, low 54,513.43, close 55,620.84. The 946-yen bullish body with small 66-yen upper shadow and 161-yen lower shadow shows clear bullish dominance. The 3/4 large bearish, 3/5 inverted hammer (small body), and 3/6 midsize bullish candle complete the morning star pattern.
■ Technical Indicators: Current Position
Moving averages: SMA5 55,896.15, SMA25 56,113.38, SMA75 52,726.53. Close 55,620.84 sits below both SMA5 and SMA25 but well above SMA75. SMA25 deviation -0.88%, SMA75 deviation +5.49%—long-term bullish bias intact. SMA5 / SMA25 dead cross detected today (dead_cross_detected: True).
RSI 48.97, up marginally from 47.24 and approaching neutral 50. MACD 550.43 / signal 992.18 / histogram -441.75—dead cross continues. Stochastic %K 35.05 / %D 25.02 with %K continuing the rebound. Ichimoku is inside the cloud.
■ Bollinger Bands and Volatility
Upper 59,589.39, middle 56,723.34, lower 53,857.29, bandwidth 10.11%. Close 55,620 sits below middle with 1,763-yen room above the lower band of 53,857. Bandwidth narrowed from 10.67% to 10.11%—volatility settling continues.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Morning Star
Today's candle completes a 3-candle morning star reversal pattern. Conditions: (1) prior large bearish candle, (2) middle small-body candle (doji, top, or hammer), (3) today's midsize-to-large bullish candle closing above the 50% midpoint of (1). Here: (1) 3/4 bearish body 1,225 (O 55,470, C 54,245) (✓), (2) 3/5 inverted hammer body 73.9 (✓), (3) 3/6 bullish body 946 closing 55,620 above the 50% midpoint of (1) at 54,857.5 (✓). The textbook form has a gap-down middle star, while 3/5 actually gapped up from 54,245 to 55,204—deviating from textbook—but the 3-candle structure and technical reversal implication are equivalent. Bulkowski's morning star reversal continuation rate is around 78%, one of the most reliable reversal patterns. Chart Master's pattern detail page covers textbook and variant forms.
■ Support and Resistance Levels
60-day range: 48,643.78 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 65.28%. Resistance: SMA5 55,896, SMA25 56,113, 3/5 high 56,619, psychological 57,000. Support: 54,513 (today's low), psychological 54,000, SMA75 52,726. Pivot support 54,860 is also nearby.
■ Volume and Market Sentiment
Volume of 142.8 million versus 20-day average yields 0.83x—light (normal). The lack of volume expansion at morning-star completion slightly lowers signal reliability, though the 3-candle structure itself is clearly intact. Multi-timeframe: daily uptrend / weekly strong uptrend / monthly strong uptrend.
■ Market Catalysts and Environment
Weekend approach gives this rebound continuation special meaning. Overseas market action and FX will dictate Monday's gap. Limited individual catalysts post-earnings; technical-driven moves dominate.
■ Outlook and Scenarios
Bullish: Reclaim of SMA25 56,113 brings full rebound, with 3/5 high 56,619 / psychological 57,000 in scope. Post-morning-star, retests of SMA25 / SMA5 are typical. Bearish: Break below 54,513 invalidates the morning star; pressure to SMA75 52,726. Neutral: 54,500-56,113 range while a base confirms.
■ Summary
March 6 completes the morning star and clarifies the bottom-reversal signal. Key levels: upside SMA25 56,113 / 56,619, downside 54,513 / SMA75 52,726. Volume-backed follow-through is the biggest reliability checkpoint.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.