Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 23) | Runaway Gap Down -1,857 Yen, SMA75 Decisively Broken

The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 23, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 51,515.49 yen on March 23, plunging 1,857.04 yen (-3.48%) at the Monday open continuation. Open 52,468.72, high 52,479.81, low 50,688.76, close 51,515.49. A 953-yen large bearish body, 11-yen upper shadow, 827-yen lower shadow. From prior close 53,372 to today's open 52,468 yields a 904.81-yen gap down—a runaway gap (continuation gap) following the 3/4 breakaway gap.

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 53,515.79, SMA25 55,703.79, SMA75 53,283.80. Close 51,515.49 broke below all three moving averages, decisively positioned below SMA75 for the first time. SMA25 deviation -7.52%, SMA75 deviation -3.32% (now negative).

RSI 37.32, down sharply from 43.23, approaching oversold 30. MACD -598.70 / signal -178.02 / histogram -420.68—zero-line below continues, histogram negativity expanding. Stochastic %K 11.48 / %D 30.23 in oversold. Ichimoku cloud bearish, price below.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 59,507.97, middle 55,383.42, lower 51,258.86, bandwidth 14.89%. Close 51,515 holds just above the lower band 51,258. Bandwidth expanded sharply from 13.69% to 14.89%—volatility surge phase.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Runaway Gap (Down)

The most important technical event today is the runaway gap (continuation gap) appearance. Conditions: (1) gap aligned with existing trend (downside), (2) appearance after a fixed period from prior breakaway gap, (3) volume expansion. Here: (1) gap down 904 yen aligned with downtrend (✓), (2) about 3 weeks after 3/4 breakaway gap (✓), (3) volume 1.07x is modest expansion. Bulkowski's runaway gap suggests the "midpoint of trend," with the final target equal in width from the breakaway origin (3/4's 56,279) to the runaway point. The breakaway-to-runaway distance is about 3,800 yen, predicting a final target around 47,700 yen.

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 48,643.78 to 59,332.43 (period_low updated to 49,257). Today's close at 22.41%—lower portion. Resistance: 52,468 (today's open / gap top), SMA75 53,283, psychological 53,000. Support: 50,688 (today's low), Bollinger lower 51,258, psychological 50,000 / 49,000, 3/9 low 51,407 nearby.

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume of 177.1 million versus 20-day average yields 1.07x—slight increase (normal). Volume expansion preferred for runaway gap; modest here. Multi-timeframe: daily / weekly / monthly all uptrend—monthly downgraded for the first time, full alignment collapsed.

■ Market Environment

Likely overseas risk-off acceleration, yen strengthening, US correction. The Nikkei breaking below SMA75 is a critical intermediate trend-reversal signal, setting the tone for the coming weeks.

■ Outlook

Bullish: Autonomous rebound from 50,688 (today's low), reclaim of 52,468 (gap top) invalidates runaway gap (gap fill). Bearish: Break below psychological 50,000 / 49,000 brings full corrective acceleration, with runaway-gap projection of 47,700 in scope. Neutral: 50,000-52,500 range while oversold resolves.

■ Summary

March 23 runaway gap confirms SMA75 break and intermediate trend reversal. Key levels: upside 52,468 (gap top) / SMA75 53,283, downside 50,688 / 50,000. Volume-backed continuation determines immediate direction.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.