Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 30) | Three Gaps Down -1,487 Yen, Multi-Year Lows Approached
The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 30, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 51,885.85 yen on March 30, plunging 1,487.22 yen (-2.79%) as the 3/27 In Neck Line bearish-continuation materializes. Open 52,054.68, high 52,054.68 (open=high), low 50,566.99, close 51,885.85. A 168-yen small bearish body, 0-yen upper shadow, 1,318-yen lower shadow. From prior close 53,373 to today's open 52,054 yields a 1,318.39-yen gap down, the third critical downside gap after 3/4 breakaway and 3/9 belt-hold gaps—the Three Gaps Down (sankuu) configuration.
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 52,972.89, SMA25 54,901.31, SMA75 53,485.28. Close 51,885.85 below all moving averages. SMA25 deviation -5.49%, SMA75 deviation -2.99%—negativity expanding.
RSI 40.51, down sharply from 45.77, breaking below neutral 50 again, 10 points to oversold 30. MACD -711.94 / signal -503.25 / histogram -208.70—histogram negativity expanding from prior -159.94 (improvement reversed). Stochastic %K 25.47 / %D 45.40 with %K plunging back to low. Ichimoku cloud bearish, price below.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 57,113.04, middle 54,109.96, lower 51,106.88, bandwidth 11.10%. Close 51,885 holds just above the lower band 51,106. Bandwidth narrowed sharply from 12.74% to 11.10%—volatility settling continues.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Three Gaps Down (Sankuu) Cumulative
The 3/4, 3/9, and 3/30 three critical downside gaps cumulate to form a structure resembling Three Gaps Down (sankuu). Classic Three Gaps Down (Three Falling Gaps) requires three consecutive gap-down days, but here we apply Bulkowski's "Three Falling Gaps" concept across three weeks. Stages: (1) 3/4 breakaway gap (56,279 → 55,470, -808) breaking consolidation, (2) 3/9 runaway-style gap (55,620 → 54,608, -1,012) breaking the cloud, (3) 3/30 exhaustion-style gap (53,373 → 52,054, -1,319) approaching oversold. In classical candlestick theory, "Three Gaps Up Squeeze" is a buy signal and "Three Gaps Down Hammer" a sell signal, suggesting reversal possibility after the third gap.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 50,198.97 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 18.47%—lowest portion. Resistance: 52,054 (today's open=high / 3/30 gap top), SMA5 52,972, SMA75 53,485, psychological 52,000 / 53,000. Support: 50,566 (today's low), Bollinger lower 51,106, 3/9 low 51,407, psychological 50,000, 3/23 runaway-gap projected target 47,700 also in scope.
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume of 183.1 million versus 20-day average yields 1.13x—increase (normal). Volume expansion at the third gap of cumulative Three Gaps Down hints at sell-off exhaustion. Multi-timeframe: daily / weekly / monthly all uptrend, but momentum dramatically reduced.
■ Market Environment
Likely month-end institutional rebalancing, hedge-fund position adjustment compounding pressure. Overseas risk-off acceleration, yen strengthening. Three Gaps Down cumulative structure could also signal trend-bottom proximity.
■ Outlook
Bullish: Autonomous rebound from 50,566 (today's low), reclaim of 52,054 (3/30 gap top) starts gap fill. Three-Gaps-Down theory suggests rebound after the third gap. Bearish: Break below 50,566 → 3/9 low 51,407 → psychological 50,000 / 60-day low 48,643 retest. Neutral: 50,000-52,000 range while oversold resolves.
■ Summary
March 30 Three Gaps Down cumulation approaches oversold and trend-bottom proximity. Key levels: upside 52,054 (gap top) / SMA5 52,972, downside 50,566 / 50,000. Tomorrow's reversal-suggestion signal determines immediate direction.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.