Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (May 15) | Three Inside Down Complete -1,244 Yen, Post-ATH Reversal Accelerates
The following technical analysis is based on data as of May 15, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 61,409.29 yen on May 15, falling 1,244.76 yen (-1.99%) for a sharp end-of-week plunge following 5/14's closing marubozu. Open 62,878.71, high 63,235.77, low 60,937.30, close 61,409.29. A 1,469-yen large bearish body with 357-yen upper shadow and 472-yen lower shadow. The 3-candle sequence of 5/13 midsize bullish, 5/14 closing marubozu, and 5/15 large bearish completes a three inside down reversal continuation pattern, completely invalidating 5/13's bullish three inside up signal.
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 62,499.18, SMA25 59,479.15, SMA75 56,312.65, SMA200 50,711.32. Close 61,409 broke about 1,090 yen below SMA5 — short-term support broken. SMA25 deviation +3.25% (vs prior +5.91%) — overheating resolving rapidly. SMA75 deviation +9.05% (vs prior +11.49%) also decelerating.
RSI 59.10, down 7 points from 66.51, below 60. Still 9 points above neutral 50. MACD 1,758.10 / signal 1,708.33 / histogram +49.76. MACD value declined from 1,895.82, histogram contracted sharply from 199.93 to 49.76 — approaching zero line and dead cross imminent. Stochastic %K 53.84 / %D 76.45 — %K well below %D in dead cross. Ichimoku: thick bullish cloud intact, price above cloud, three-fold bullish maintained.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 63,852.66, middle 60,395.92, lower 56,939.18, bandwidth 11.45%. Today's close 61,409 sits just above middle line — rapid pullback from +2 sigma toward middle. Bandwidth narrowed from 12.68% to 11.45%.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Three Inside Down
Today's candle completes a 3-candle three inside down pattern. Conditions: (1) prior large bullish, (2) middle small body inside (1), (3) today's bearish close below (1)'s open. Here: (1) 5/13 midsize bullish body 874 (O 62,398, C 63,272) (✓), (2) 5/14 closing marubozu body 609 (O 63,263, C 62,654) approximately inside (1) (✓), (3) 5/15 bearish close 61,409 < (1)'s open 62,398 by ~989 yen (✓). Bulkowski's three inside down reversal-continuation rate around 65%; fully invalidates 5/13's three inside up as a powerful reversal continuation signal.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 50,558.91 to 63,799.32. Today's close at 81.95%. Resistance: 5/14 low 62,654, SMA5 62,499, Bollinger upper 63,852, 5/14 high 63,799. Support: 60,937 (today's low), psychological 61,000, Bollinger middle 60,395, SMA25 59,479, psychological 60,000. Fibonacci 78.6% sits at 60,409, near the middle line — important support cluster.
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume 213.9 million versus 20-day average 166.94 million yields 1.28x — surging (increasing). Three inside down + volume expansion significantly raises reversal signal reliability. Multi-timeframe stays all strong uptrend with full alignment.
■ Market Environment
Following 5/14's closing marubozu, the weekend plunge further contracts the upside energy since 5/7's historic surge. Overseas markets, FX, US VIX, and late-earnings responses dictate near-term moves. Weekend approach means overseas action will set May 18 reopen gap direction.
■ Outlook and Scenarios
Bullish: Reclaim of SMA5 62,499 invalidates three inside down; retest of psychological 63,000 / 5/14 high 63,799 in scope. Bearish: Break below today's low 60,937 / middle 60,395 / psychological 60,000 brings full corrective phase, with SMA25 59,479 / 5/7 open 60,241 pressure. Neutral: 60,000-62,500 range while SMA25 deviation cools.
■ Summary
May 15 three inside down invalidates 5/13 three inside up and lights up the full reversal signal. Key levels: upside SMA5 62,499 / 63,000, downside 60,937 / 60,000. May 18 reopen gap and 60,000 hold/break sets the short-term inflection.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.