Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 11) | Three Inside Up Complete +776 Yen, Bottom Confirmed
The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 11, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 55,025.37 yen on March 11, adding 776.98 yen (+1.43%) for a third consecutive rebound day, completing the bullish harami confirmation signal. Open 54,917.93, high 55,745.38, low 54,882.58, close 55,025.37—a small 107-yen bullish body, but the 3-candle sequence of 3/9 large bearish, 3/10 harami bullish, 3/11 bullish completes a three inside up reversal continuation pattern.
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 54,580.28, SMA25 56,219.34, SMA75 52,860.13. Close 55,025.37 reclaims SMA5, sits below SMA25, well above SMA75. SMA25 deviation -2.12%, SMA75 deviation +4.10%.
RSI 48.17, up from 44.89, approaching neutral 50. MACD 18.06 / signal 550.27 / histogram -532.21—zero-line below continues, but histogram is starting to contract. Stochastic %K 45.65 / %D 32.72 with %K continuing to rebound. Ichimoku returns to inside the cloud.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 59,797.67, middle 56,601.68, lower 53,405.70, bandwidth 11.29%. Close 55,025 sits below middle with 1,620 yen above the lower band. Bandwidth slightly expanded from 11.00% to 11.29%.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Three Inside Up
Today's candle completes a three inside up pattern. Conditions: (1) prior large bearish, (2) middle small body inside (1)'s body, (3) today's bullish close above (1)'s open. Here: (1) 3/9 bearish body 1,879 (O 54,608, C 52,728) (✓), (2) 3/10 bullish body 724 inside (1) (✓), (3) 3/11 bullish close 55,025 > (1)'s open 54,608 (✓). Third-candle confirmation triggers. Bulkowski's three-inside-up reliability is around 75%. Chart Master's pattern detail page covers 3-candle pattern confirmation.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 48,643.78 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 59.70%. Resistance: 55,745 (today's high), SMA25 56,219, psychological 56,000 / 57,000. Support: 54,882 (today's low), SMA5 54,580, psychological 54,000, SMA75 52,860.
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume of 146.9 million versus 20-day average yields 0.87x—light (normal). Three-inside-up completion without volume expansion slightly lowers reliability. Multi-timeframe: daily uptrend / weekly strong uptrend / monthly strong uptrend—alignment improvement continues.
■ Market Environment
Third straight rebound in a technical-driven environment. Overseas market action, FX direction, and semiconductor sector are decisive going forward.
■ Outlook
Bullish: Reclaim of SMA25 56,219 brings full rebound, with psychological 56,000 / 57,000 in scope. Three-inside-up completion typically signals trend-reversal confirmation rebounds. Bearish: Break below SMA5 54,580 invalidates the pattern; pressure to retest 3/9 low 51,407. Neutral: 54,580-56,219 range testing SMA25.
■ Summary
March 11 three inside up clarifies bottom-confirmation signal. Key levels: upside 55,745 / SMA25 56,219, downside SMA5 54,580 / 54,000. Volume-backed follow-through is the trend-reclaim reliability checkpoint.
Three-inside-up reliability per Bulkowski is about 75% breakout-direction continuation, a high-reliability reversal continuation pattern. However, when volume is absent or daily SMA25 deviation remains deeply negative, sell pressure on rebounds warrants caution. Whether the confirming bullish candle appears with volume, and how long the rebound from below SMA25 lasts, are the immediate checkpoints.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.