Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (May 13) | Three Inside Up Complete +529 Yen, Engulfing Invalidated

The following technical analysis is based on data as of May 13, 2026.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 63,272.11 yen on May 13, adding 529.54 yen (+0.84%) and reclaiming the psychological 63,000 level. Open 62,398.02, high 63,347.91, low 62,318.87, close 63,272.11. A midsize 874.09-yen bullish body with tiny upper shadow 75.80 and lower shadow 79.15 — body 82% of range, a powerful bullish candle. The 3-candle sequence of 5/11 large bearish, 5/12 spinning top, and 5/13 midsize bullish completes a three inside up reversal continuation pattern, invalidating 5/11's bearish engulfing.

■ Technical Indicators

Moving averages: SMA5 62,796.01, SMA25 58,778.10, SMA75 56,068.68, SMA200 50,502.79. Close 63,272.11 well above all averages — perfect order intact. SMA25 deviation +7.65%, SMA75 deviation +12.85% — caution-level overheating persists.

RSI 70.59, up 1.5 points from 69.08, hitting the 70 overbought zone. MACD 1,917.30 / signal 1,645.91 / histogram +271.39 — fresh-high levels maintained. Stochastic %K 97.63 / %D 88.34 — fully overbought. Ichimoku: three-fold bullish intact.

■ Bollinger Bands

Upper 63,741.53, middle 59,864.10, lower 55,986.66, bandwidth 12.95%. Today's close 63,272 sits 469 yen below upper band — just under +2 sigma. Bandwidth essentially flat — volatility settling.

■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Three Inside Up

Today's candle completes a 3-candle three inside up. Conditions: (1) prior large bearish, (2) middle small body inside (1)'s body, (3) today's bullish close above (1)'s open. Here: (1) 5/11 large bearish body 785.56 (O 63,203, C 62,417) (✓); (2) 5/12 spinning top body 123.85 fully inside (1) (62,417-63,203) (✓); (3) 5/13 bullish close 63,272 > (1)'s open 63,203 (✓). Bulkowski's three inside up reliability is about 75%, fully invalidating 5/11's bearish engulfing as a strong reversal-continuation signal.

■ Support and Resistance

60-day range: 50,558.91 to 63,385.04. Today's close at 99.12% — near absolute top. Resistance: 63,347 (today's high), 5/11 high 63,385 (recent new ATH), Bollinger upper 63,741, psychological 64,000. Support: 62,318 (today's low), pivot 62,611, SMA5 62,796, psychological 62,000.

■ Volume and Sentiment

Volume 181.0 million versus 20-day average 164.5 million yields 1.10x — slight increase (normal). Volume expansion with three inside up completion adds reliability. Multi-timeframe stays all strong uptrend with full alignment.

■ Market Environment

Three inside up completed in just 2 sessions after 5/11's new-ATH rejection, returning to retest the 5/11 high 63,385. Stable overseas markets and FX trigger buy-the-dip; short-cover squeeze pressure in blue-sky also worth noting.

■ Outlook and Scenarios

Bullish: Volume-backed break above 5/11 high 63,385 / Bollinger upper 63,741 brings new-high updates, with psychological 64,000 → Fibonacci extension 65,000 as next targets. Bearish: Break below 62,318 / SMA5 62,796 invalidates pattern; 5/11 low 62,380 retest pressure. Neutral: 62,800-63,385 range while SMA25 deviation +7.65% cools.

■ Summary

May 13 three inside up invalidates 5/11 bearish engulfing, bullish continuation signal lit. Key levels: upside 63,385 / 64,000, downside SMA5 62,796 / 62,000. Both RSI 70 overbought and new-ATH attempt warrant attention.

* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.