Nikkei 225 Chart Analysis (Mar 31) | Tweezer Bottom (8-yen diff) -822 Yen, Month-End Reversal Hint
The following technical analysis is based on data as of March 31, 2026.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 51,063.72 yen on March 31, falling 822.13 yen (-1.58%) on the final March trading day. Open 51,382.53, high 52,169.01, low 50,558.91, close 51,063.72. A 318-yen small bearish body with 786-yen upper shadow and 504-yen lower shadow. The 3/30 low 50,566.99 vs. today's low 50,558.91 differ by just 8.08 yen (0.016%)—a near-perfect Tweezer Bottom forms.
■ Technical Indicators
Moving averages: SMA5 52,735.18, SMA25 54,670.83, SMA75 53,492.91. Close 51,063.72 below all moving averages. SMA25 deviation -6.60%, SMA75 deviation -4.54%—negativity expanding further.
RSI 37.92, down from 40.51, approaching oversold 30. MACD -848.49 / signal -572.29 / histogram -276.19—histogram negativity re-expanding. Stochastic %K 9.73 / %D 29.43 in fully oversold. Ichimoku cloud bearish, price below.
■ Bollinger Bands
Upper 56,456.42, middle 53,760.28, lower 51,064.15, bandwidth 10.03%. Close 51,063 sits just below Bollinger lower 51,064 (diff 0.4 yen)—-2 sigma decisively broken. Bandwidth narrowed further from 11.10% to 10.03%—volatility settling notably.
■ Chart Pattern Analysis: Tweezer Bottom
Today's candle forms a textbook Tweezer Bottom with 3/30. Conditions: (1) appearance at bottom region after a downtrend, (2) prior and today's lows roughly equal (within 1%), (3) reversal hint. Here: (1) bottom region after 3/19+ declines of -3,724 (✓), (2) 3/30 low 50,566.99 vs. 3/31 low 50,558.91 differ by just 8.08 yen (0.016%) (✓), (3) appearance in oversold region with reversal hint (✓). Bulkowski's Tweezer Bottom reversal-continuation rate around 60-65%, with elevated reliability for appearance in oversold RSI / stochastic regions.
■ Support and Resistance
60-day range: 50,198.97 to 59,332.43. Today's close at 9.47%—lowest portion. Resistance: 52,169 (today's high), SMA5 52,735, SMA75 53,492, SMA25 54,670. Support: 50,558 (today's low / Tweezer Bottom with 3/30), Bollinger lower 51,064, psychological 50,000 / 48,643 (60-day low).
■ Volume and Sentiment
Volume of 174.5 million versus 20-day average yields 1.07x—slight increase (normal). Volume expansion preferred for Tweezer Bottom; modest here. Multi-timeframe: daily / weekly / monthly all uptrend. Bottom-formation signal at month-end / quarter-end timing carries significant temporal weight.
■ Market Environment
Month-end / quarter-end with institutional rebalancing winding down. Overseas markets, FX, US indices will dictate next-month direction. Tweezer Bottom + oversold + Bollinger lower-band reach combined signal strongly suggests technical bottom-formation proximity.
■ Outlook
Bullish: Reclaim of 52,169 (today's high) + SMA5 52,735 brings full Tweezer-Bottom-confirmation rebound, with SMA75 53,492 → SMA25 54,670 → psychological 55,000 in scope. After Three Gaps Down cumulation, "Three Gaps Down Hammer" rebound scenario possible. Bearish: Break below 50,558 (Tweezer line) invalidates reversal signal, with psychological 50,000 → 60-day low 48,643 retest. Neutral: 50,500-52,200 range for base confirmation.
■ Summary
March 31 Tweezer Bottom + oversold + Bollinger lower combined signal lights month-end reversal hint. Key levels: upside 52,169 / SMA5 52,735, downside 50,558 (Tweezer Bottom) / 50,000. April-start confirmation signal expected on this critical day.
* This article provides information based on technical analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.