Expanded Flat / エクスパンデッドフラット
General reference values based on Elliott Wave Theory. Actual success rates vary significantly depending on market conditions, timeframe, and instrument.
The most common variation of the flat correction, where Wave B exceeds Wave A's origin and Wave C extends beyond Wave A's endpoint. Wave A is a 3-wave structure, Wave B is also a 3-wave structure retracing 100-138.2% of Wave A (exceeding A's origin), and Wave C is a 5-wave impulse that extends beyond Wave A's endpoint. Wave B's new high acts as a trap, after which Wave C's decline becomes deeper.
After Wave B exceeds Wave A's origin to make a new high, enter short when reversal signals (bearish engulfing, MACD death cross, RSI divergence, etc.) appear. Recognize that Wave B's new high is a trap and prepare for Wave C's sharp decline.
Wave C targets levels beyond Wave A's endpoint. Measure 100-161.8% of Wave A's length from Wave B's peak to set targets. The level beyond Wave A's endpoint (bottom) is the first target; Wave A's 161.8% extension is the second target.
Place a stop-loss slightly above Wave B's peak. If Wave B extends significantly beyond 138.2% of Wave A, reconsider as the pattern may be invalid.
Characteristically, volume increases during Wave B as it forms a new high in an optimistic mood. If volume increases further in Wave C, especially when it breaks below Wave A's endpoint, pattern reliability is high. Treat Wave B's volume increase as a sign of deception.