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Falling Wedge

Falling Wedge / 下降ウェッジ

IntermediateReversal PatternsBullish (Up)Reliability 74%

Pattern Formation

53 / 53 candles
1,1041,0721,0391,00797494201/0101/0701/1301/1901/2501/3102/0602/1202/18
Speed

Statistics

Target Hit Rate
63%
Average Move
18%
Failure Rate
14%
Avg Formation Days
48 days
Volume Confirmation Boost
+13%

Reference values based on Bulkowski's "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns". Data is primarily from U.S. markets and may differ for other markets.

A pattern where both highs and lows decline, but the upper trendline declines more steeply, causing the two trendlines to converge downward. At the bottom of a downtrend, it functions as a reversal pattern; during a pullback within an uptrend, it functions as a continuation pattern. In both cases, an upward breakout is expected.

Formation Conditions

  • Both highs and lows must be declining
  • Upper and lower trendlines must converge downward
  • The upper trendline's angle of descent must be steeper than the lower
  • Each trendline must have at least two touches
  • Volume should decrease during formation

Entry Condition

Enter long when price clearly breaks above the upper trendline (resistance) on a closing basis. A volume increase at breakout is important to confirm.

Target Calculation

Project the widest part of the wedge upward from the breakout point. Or target the price at the wedge formation's starting point.

Stop Loss Rule

Place a stop-loss slightly below the most recent low within the wedge.

Volume Profile

Volume typically decreases gradually during formation. A volume surge at the upward breakout enhances reliability. Breakouts without volume may be false signals.

False Signal Detection

  • A downward breakout means pattern failure; stop-loss is necessary
  • An upward breakout without volume may be a false signal
  • In an extremely bearish market, the pattern may not function
  • Too short a formation period reduces reliability

Related Indicators

RSI (divergence)MACDVolumeStochastics

Related Patterns

Double TopDouble BottomHead and ShouldersInverse Head and Shoulders

Learn More

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